Israel votes on Tuesday: Netanyahu runs on his Iran war as polls put a former army chief's party ahead

Update, 29 October: Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, eight short of a majority. Read the results.

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday, 27 October, in the first general election since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023. All 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, are up for grabs, and a government needs the support of 61 of them.

For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the war with Iran is at the centre of the campaign.

"Overthrow" the Islamic Republic

In an interview with Israel's Channel 14 last week, Netanyahu said his directive to the Mossad, the army and military intelligence was to "overthrow" Iran's Islamic Republic. "If we do not overthrow this regime, it will destroy us," he said, Voice of America reported. He repeated the message at a rally in the southern town of Dimona: "There is only one way to end this: by toppling this regime," AFP reported. He did not say when or how this would be done.

In a final video appeal on Monday, he quoted US President Donald Trump: "Together, he and I will eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all," ANI reported.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, accused Netanyahu of pushing the United States toward another war with Iran, Anadolu Agency reported. He said that the last time Washington tried to "finish the job", Iran "emerged even stronger", according to VOA.

What the polls say

Most polls show Yashar, the party of former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, as the largest party with 20 to 23 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud on 19 to 21, ABC News (Australia) reported. Four surveys published on 23 October showed Yashar leading Likud, according to the Jerusalem Post, as cited by ANI.

Party size is not the whole story. Israeli governments are coalitions, and the blocs matter more:

• Netanyahu's bloc (Likud, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties): about 49 to 51 seats.
• The opposition bloc (Yashar, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's joint list, the Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu): about 52 to 55 seats.
• Arab-led parties: about 13 seats, according to polling cited by Al Jazeera.

On these numbers, neither side reaches 61 without help. Arab-led party Ra'am has signalled it could join a government, but most opposition leaders have ruled that out, Al Jazeera reported. If no one can form a coalition, Israel could head to yet another election, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker prime minister.

Netanyahu is also on trial for corruption, charges he denies. His opponents question whether a prime minister on trial should stay in office, ABC News reported.

Washington is also deciding

The vote comes as Trump weighs a new strike on Iran. On Sunday he said "there will not be a strike today", but kept the option open. "I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" he told Fox News, Samaa TV reported. ARY News also reported his "no strike today" remark.

Talks have not stopped completely. Araghchi said on 21 October that indirect contacts with the US were continuing through mediators including Pakistan and Qatar, but the two sides remain divided over Iran's demand that the US first honour the memorandum they agreed in June, Arab News Pakistan reported. We covered the latest on that in our story on Trump's "maybe tomorrow" remark.

When will we know

Polls open at 7am and close at 10pm local time, which is 1am on Wednesday in Pakistan. Israeli TV channels publish exit polls as voting ends. The final count takes a few days, and then President Isaac Herzog asks the leader with the best chance of forming a government to try. That can take weeks.

We will update this story with the results.