Trump says a new Iran strike could come "maybe tomorrow" as Houthis hit Saudi Arabia and Pakistan pushes for talks

The fragile ceasefire in the US-Iran war looks shakier than at any point in weeks. US President Donald Trump says a new strike on Iran is being considered, Iran says it has shot down a US drone, and Iran-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen are firing missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, meanwhile, is trying to get Washington and Tehran talking again.

Here is what happened, and why it matters.

"Maybe tomorrow"

Speaking to reporters in Florida on Saturday, 24 October, after casting his early vote in the midterms, Trump was asked how close he was to ordering another attack. "We're thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow," he said. He refused to give details, asking: "Do you really think I'm going to tell you if I'm going to do it?", Anadolu Agency reported.

He also left the door open to a deal. Iran wants one, he said, "but the problem is, will they hold the deal?" He added: "I may have to finish it off, or maybe they'll make a deal. But I'm not sure. Either way, we win." The Tribune also reported his "maybe tomorrow" remark and his talk of a "big, beautiful" deal.

The day before, at a rally in Fort Myers, Florida, Trump had said: "We may do another little Epic Fury", using the name of the US military campaign against Iran, without giving details, The Times of Israel reported.

Iran says it shot down a US drone

On Sunday, 25 October, Iran's army said its air defences shot down a US drone over the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, Reuters reported. The reports did not include any comment from the US military, and the claim has not been independently confirmed.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia

The Houthis said on Saturday that they had targeted airports in Riyadh, Dammam and Najran, an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West oil pipeline, among other sites, AnewZ reported. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones and missiles. Early on Sunday its civil defence authority issued safety warnings for Riyadh, Khamis Mushait and Abha, and later said the danger had passed, ABC News reported.

These attacks are a big reason why oil has become more expensive again. Brent crude reached $111.05 a barrel on 20 October, its highest level since May, after Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites and attacks on at least 18 ships in the Gulf in two weeks, according to ship tracker Kpler, Reuters reported.

Pakistan in the middle

Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was in Tehran on 20 October and met President Masoud Pezeshkian, Al-Monitor reported. Pakistan has been one of the main go-betweens for Washington and Tehran since the war began on 28 February.

According to Pakistani government sources quoted by Anadolu Agency, the visit focused mostly on the Houthi attacks. Munir urged Iran to "use its influence to bring a halt to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia", pointing to Pakistan's defence pact with Riyadh. He also discussed ways to restart direct US-Iran talks.

Iran's answer, according to the same sources, was that the US must first return to the memorandum the two sides signed in June, end its pressure and lift sanctions. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, told Munir that Washington could not regain Tehran's trust until it met Iran's conditions, including an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports, Al-Monitor reported. Both sides agreed to keep passing messages through mediators.

Why it matters

• For Pakistan: a wider war puts Pakistan in a hard spot, between a neighbour, Iran, and an ally it has promised to defend, Saudi Arabia. It also keeps fuel prices high at home, as we explained here.
• For oil: Saudi Arabia is one of the world's biggest oil exporters. Attacks on its pipelines and refineries, on top of the danger in the Strait of Hormuz, keep prices high everywhere.
• For the US: the decision comes days before the midterm elections, where the war and fuel prices are among the biggest issues, as our midterms explainer sets out.

What to watch

Whether Trump orders new strikes or returns to talks, how Iran and the Houthis respond, Israel's election on 27 October, and the US vote on 3 November. We will update this story as things develop.