US midterms on 3 November, explained: what is at stake, and why the Iran war could decide them

On Tuesday, 3 November, Americans vote in the midterm elections, held halfway through a president's four-year term. Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but control of Congress is, and with it the power to pass, block or investigate much of what his government does.

Here is what you need to know.

What is on the ballot

• The House of Representatives: all 435 seats. A party needs 218 for a majority.
• The Senate: 35 of the 100 seats, according to Bloomberg Government. Republicans are defending 22 of them.
• Governors: more than 30 states also elect a governor, Britannica notes.

Republicans control both chambers today. They held the House 218 to 213 at the start of the year, with some seats vacant, UPI reported, and the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of that chamber.

What the polls say

Democrats lead when Americans are asked which party they want to control Congress. As of 23 October, they were ahead by 9.1 points in Nate Silver's average of these "generic ballot" polls, close to their high for the year.

That points to a good night for Democrats in the House. The Senate is harder for them, because most of the Republican seats on the ballot are in states Trump won comfortably. Close races to watch include Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa.

Polls are not results. National averages can miss close local races, and turnout in midterms is usually lower and harder to predict.

Why the Iran war is a campaign issue

The US and Israel began attacking Iran on 28 February. Iran then disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and fuel prices jumped. In the US, petrol rose from under $3 a gallon before the war to more than $4.27, Al Jazeera reported, citing AAA data.

What Democrats say: that the war is driving up the cost of living. They tie petrol and grocery prices to it and attack Republicans who voted against resolutions to end it. Senator Chris Murphy called the war "a death sentence for the American economy".

What Republicans say: Trump calls the war "one of the greatest things we've done" and says it stopped Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Republicans argue that voting against the war powers resolutions does not mean they want the war to go on, PolitiFact noted. At the same time, several Republican candidates, including Mike Rogers in Michigan and Senator Jon Husted in Ohio, now say the war should end quickly.

Polls show the war is unpopular overall but still backed by most Republicans. An August IGA survey found 60% of potential voters disapproved of Trump's handling of it, while a Pew poll in October found 63% of Republicans approved, according to Al Jazeera.

What Congress can and cannot do about the war

Congress has voted many times on "war powers" resolutions that would order an end to US involvement. In September, the House passed one with the help of seven Republicans, but it failed in the Senate, PolitiFact reported.

Even if a Democratic Congress passed one, Trump could veto it, and no war powers resolution has ever overcome a veto. What a Democratic majority could do is hold public hearings, demand documents and use its control over government spending to put pressure on the White House.

Trump has suggested he may resume all-out fighting after the midterms, Al Jazeera reported. The result could shape how free he feels to do that.

Why it matters for Pakistan and the region

• Fuel prices: Pakistan imports most of its oil, and the price Pakistanis pay at the pump has followed the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz. Anything that makes the war longer or shorter will show up in petrol and diesel prices, as we explained here.
• A war next door: Iran shares a long border with Pakistan. A new round of fighting after the election would raise the risks for trade, energy and security in the region.
• Trump's claims about South Asia: Trump often says he ended the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, and he repeats it at rallies. We track every version of that claim in our Trump Claim Tracker.

When will we know the result

Polls close on the evening of 3 November in the US, which is early on 4 November in Pakistan. Some races are called the same night, but close ones can take days, especially where postal votes are counted later. Whoever wins, the new Congress takes office in January 2027.

We will update this story with the results.